Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
